A test for you today! How effective is your crystal ball?
Ditch the earn-more, spend-more trap
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Today I want to play a game with you.
This test crushed my confidence in stock picking forever.
Let’s see how you do.
Look at this chart. It’s the S&P 500 since Google started tracking in November ‘96.
S&P 500
A €100,000 investment then would be worth €915,000 today (without dividends).
But here's the game:
The top 10 companies in 1996 were:
1. Coca Cola
2. Exxon Mobil
3. Intel
4. Microsoft
5. General Electric
6. Merck
7. IBM
8. Procter & Gamble
9. Johnson & Johnson
10. Walmart
Before reading on, answer these:
Question 1: Which company grew almost 5,000% and is the ONLY one still in today’s top 10?
Question 2: Which “safe” tech giant crashed hardest?
Question 3: €100,000 in the whole S&P 500 vs €10,000 in each top 10 stock. Which wins?
Got your answers?
Here's what actually happened:
Microsoft exploded by 4,731%. It’s now 44% of the entire top 10’s growth.
Intel? Crashed from 3rd to 62nd. Just 162% growth.
Coca Cola dropped from 1st to 29th. Fossil fuel giant Exxon barely beat inflation.
If you’d split €100,000 across these “winners”, you’d have €1,171,471 today.
Sounds brilliant until you realise €736,649 of that is just Microsoft and Walmart. The other eight barely moved the needle.
I failed spectacularly
I would not have been able to pick the only 2 companies in the top 10 that beat the entire market.
So if I can’t predict the past with perfect hindsight, how the hell can financial advisers predict the future?
They can’t. But my friend, they’ll charge you 1-2% annually to pretend they can.
They’ll assess your “risk tolerance” whilst taking zero risk with their commissions.
They’ll rebalance your portfolio every quarter, generating fees whilst Intel-style disasters destroy your wealth.
Now look at today's top 10
Will Nvidia keep climbing or become tomorrow’s Intel?
Will Tesla maintain its magic?
Can Google survive the AI revolution?
I have no bloody clue.
Neither does your adviser.
That’s why I buy everything.
The entire market.
Every company.
Winners and losers.
No predictions.
No adviser fees.
No losing sleep wondering if I picked the next Intel.
My portfolio is:
- Globally diversified
- Tax optimised (saving me thousands)
- Costs 0.06% instead of 2%
- Beats 90% of active funds
And I spend exactly 10 minutes per month managing it.
Want to stop playing the prediction game?
Join my Investing 101 workshop Wednesday 20th November at 20:00
I’ll show you:
✓ My exact “buy everything” strategy
✓ How to cut fees by 95%
✓ The tax wrapper that doubles your returns
✓ Why “risk assessment” is bullshit designed to confuse you
Only 15 spots left.
Still confused after the session? Full refund.
Not able to make it on Thursday? You'll get a recording
Join the waitlist for the next one!
That is it for this weekend. I am off the Art Source in the RDS to check out some local artists. Have a great weekend!
To your financial freedom,
Sjoerd
P.S. Can't make November 20th? You'll get the recording. But live is better - you can ask me anything about your specific situation.
Sjoerd Bak
Become a Millionaire Ltd
www.bamillionaire.com
