Why I Stopped Trying to Predict the Markets
This week I was proven wrong again about my ability to predict market movements.
Last Monday, I woke up to news that the US military had removed the leader of Venezuela and flown him to a prison in Texas. I had to read it twice.
In the same week, the US withdrew from 66 international agreements, announced a 500 billion dollar increase in the defence budget, and said it wanted Greenland “no matter what”. I started picturing the medium and long term consequences, and none of them were nice. And I thought: surely this will rattle the markets.
So I checked my portfolio.
The S&P 500? All-time high. The Dow Jones? All-time high. My beloved Vanguard All World? All-time high. It was like nothing had happened.
Now, I could try to be clever. I could say “buy defence stocks because that budget has to go somewhere”, or “oil companies in Texas are about to make a fortune”. But here is what I have learned: I have no idea what will move the markets. Every time I think I have it figured out, I am wrong. And honestly, that is fine.
Because my investing strategy was never built on being right about the news. It is built on owning a piece of everything.
My pension goes into an all-world index fund. So do my extra savings. About 3,500 companies across every region and currency. I am not betting on the US. I am not betting on AI or defence or oil. I am betting that as long as the world keeps turning, money keeps flowing into markets. And over 10, 20, 30 years, that has been true through every crisis, every war, and every headline that felt like the end of the world.
If this feels confusing, you are not alone. Before 2020, I did not understand any of it. I was 37 before I figured out how investing actually works, and I wish someone had shown me in my early 20s. That is the whole reason I do what I do now: to give people the shortcut I wish I had had.
If you are earning good money but feel lost when it comes to investing, here is a short video on what I actually do: https://go.bamillionaire.com/watch-now. Or if you are ready, book a call: https://go.bamillionaire.com/apply
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